Giovedì 8 maggio ore 14:30    –    ON LINE LINK

Gian Marco Palamara, CNR-ISMAR-Roma
“Integrated Modelling for Integrative Ecology”

ABSTRACT: Ecology is a discipline with flexible boundaries, where characterizing species interactions and ecosystem responses often requires accounting for the complexity, nonlinearity, and stochastic nature of biological and environmental processes.
In this talk, I will present different ecological case studies combining experimental and theoretical approaches to explore population and community dynamics under environmental stress and spatial heterogeneity. In the first part of the talk, we analyse long-term experiments on Daphnia galeata exposed to sublethal pesticide concentrations using a stochastic, age-structured population model. Bayesian inference reveals significant treatment effects — particularly for the insecticide Diazinon — on mortality and fertility, with clone-specific responses reflecting potential adaptation. The model also accounts for strong demographic stochasticity, supporting more reliable interpretation of ecotoxicological data. In a second case study, we develop stochastic models for multi-species systems, including food webs and metacommunities. Using continuous-time Markov processes, we revisit functional response theory, predator prey equations, and finally explore biodiversity dynamics in dynamic landscapes modelled as time-varying random geometric graphs with neutral dynamics. Among other things, our findings show that fluctuating connectivity can enhance both local and regional species richness, offering new theoretical insights into spatiotemporal drivers of biodiversity.
Together, these studies demonstrate how stochastic models can reveal hidden mechanisms in ecological systems — from controlled experiments to complex landscapes.

Gian Marco Palamara was born in Rome and trained as a physicist. For over a decade, he has worked internationally at the intersection of theoretical ecology and ecological modelling, collaborating closely with empiricists to develop robust theoretical frameworks for understanding the drivers of biological diversity. More recently, Gian Marco has been exploring integrative approaches to ecology that bridge disciplinary boundaries, drawing together insights from the mathematical, natural, and social sciences.

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