A study by CNR-ISMAR and INGV has identified some anomalies in the radial geometry of vertical ground deformation affecting the volcanic caldera of the Phlegraean Fields, referring to the period 2016-2021, when seismic events were not yet as frequent and intense as in the current period.
Active volcanic calderas often show significant ground deformation, typically in a radial or elliptical pattern. Detection of minor anomalies within the main deformation process can provide critical insights into structural and volcano-tectonic features, magmatic intrusions, and possible eruptive scenarios.
Fabio Matano and Annarita Casaburi (CNR-ISMAR Naples) and Giuseppe De Natale (INGV) developed a simple but innovative method to detect and interpret deformation anomalies in the Campi Flegrei caldera between 2016 and 2021.
Vertical deformation measured from MT-InSAR data from the Sentinel-1 satellite, provided by the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS – Copernicus), was filtered with a polynomial model, representing the average spatial deformation trend based on the well-established and repetitive pattern over the past 60 years of a main source of uplift with radial symmetry.
The results obtained, illustrated for example in the map of uplift anomalies identified in 2016-2021 during a period of low seismicity (See Fig.), show that the epicenters of major earthquakes (Md>3. 0), which then occurred successively between 2022 and 2024, were largely clustered along the structural lineaments (A and B in the figure) separating the areas of anomalous behavior; in particular, the epicenter of the March 13, 2025 earthquake, the strongest ever recorded in the area with Md 4.6, is also located near the B lineament.
Mapping ground deformation anomalies during the initial unrest phases of the Phlegraean volcanic caldera may allow for early detection of structures that will become more seismically active, allowing for improved accuracy of future predictions even with respect to eruptive scenarios.
Link to scientific article:
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/6/3344
Matano, F.; Casaburi, A.; De Natale, G. An MT-InSAR-Based Procedure for Detecting and Interpreting Vertical Ground Deformation Anomalies During Phases of Unrest at Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy. Appl. Sci. 2025, 15, 3344. https://doi.org/10.3390/ app15063344
