Programme: POR FESR LAZIO 2014-2020, Avviso “Gruppi di ricerca 2020”
Project title: Observation-aware dynamical downscaling of sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions onto the Mediterranean region and Lazio area
Acronym: DYNAMOL
Duration: 23/07/2021 – 30/09/2023
Total Budget: € 149 993
ISMAR budget: € 120 288
Web site: n.a.
Summary:
DYNAMOL proposes to implement a regional seasonal forecast service, with focus on the Mediterranean basin and the regions of central Italy. The project aims to promote the routine use of these forecasts for energy and water planning of many local productive activities, both directly through the provision of these forecasts to large industries and consortia, and indirectly through the intermediation and processing of the products by companies and agencies specialized in climate services. The DYNAMOL project aims to use the multi-model ensemble of global seasonal forecasts provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S, https://climate.copernicus.eu) as initial and boundary conditions for the high-resolution regional model. At the same time, the project will help define so-called “best practices” for the development of regional ensemble forecasts. Dynamic downscaling of seasonal forecasts, i.e. increasing the spatial resolution of forecasts through the use of regional ensemble models, allows to predict anomalies and trends of the following months with higher spatial accuracy, with potentially significant impact on different economic sectors and productive activities (energy and water demand planning, agricultural and aquaculture and fishery activities, population safety, and other tertiary activities such as insurance and tourism). The highly innovative character of this project concerns i) the use of coupled regional Earth system models for multi-model dynamical downscaling, ii) the use of a multi-model ensemble of boundary conditions, iii) coupled air-sea assimilation at regional scale. The ERC domain of the Project is PE10_3 “Climatology and climate change”.
Contact person in ISMAR: andrea.storto@cnr.it
Partnership:
- Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Italy)
- AGENZIA NAZIONALE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, L’ENERGIA E LO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO SOSTENIBILE (ENEA)
